Category Archives: 2023

2024 Texas Real Estate Market Summary and Analysis

The Texas real estate market is known for its resilience and constant growth. With a strong economy, diverse cities, and a favorable business environment, Texas has become an attractive destination for homebuyers and real estate investors alike. In this comprehensive analysis, we will delve into the key aspects of the Texas housing market, including recent trends, pricing fluctuations, inventory levels, and expert predictions for the future.

Population Growth and Housing Demand

One of the driving factors behind the thriving Texas real estate market is the state’s rapid population growth. According to Texas REALTORS®, the population of Texas has been growing at a rate five times higher than the national average in the last two years. This significant population influx has created a strong demand for housing, putting pressure on inventory levels and driving up prices.

Pricing Trends and Market Conditions

Home Prices and Affordability

In recent months, the Texas housing market has experienced some fluctuations in home prices. According to data from the Texas Real Estate Research Center, the median home price in Texas decreased by 1.5% from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023. Despite this slight decline, housing prices in Texas remain relatively high, with the median price standing at $340,000 in Q3 2023. This indicates that homes in Texas are still relatively less affordable compared to the national average.

Impact of High Mortgage Rates

One of the factors influencing the Texas housing market is the impact of high mortgage rates. These higher interest rates have put downward pressure on home sales, resulting in a 5.9% decline in home sales compared to the previous year. However, despite the challenges posed by high mortgage rates, the demand for new construction has shown resilience, indicating the continued growth and development of the housing market.

Housing Supply and Inventory Levels

Increase in Inventory

In response to the growing demand for housing, inventory levels in Texas have seen a notable increase. Over the past year, available homes for sale have gone up by 15.2%, providing potential buyers with more options and choices [5]. This increase in inventory is a positive sign for buyers, as it allows for a more balanced market and potentially more negotiating power.

Months of Inventory

Despite the increase in inventory, Texas still faces a shortage of available homes, with the months of inventory standing at 3.7 in Q3 2023[5]. Ideally, a balanced market would have around six months of inventory, indicating that there is still room for growth in the housing supply to meet the high demand.

Housing Report

Regional Analysis: Major Cities in Texas

To gain a comprehensive understanding of the Texas real estate market, it is crucial to analyze the trends and conditions in major cities across the state. Let’s take a closer look at four of the largest cities in Texas: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Austin.

Houston

Houston, one of the largest cities in Texas, has experienced a slight decline in median home prices, with a 1.1% decrease year-over-year[6]. Despite the decline, the median price remains relatively high at 336,125 USD, indicating that Houston’s real estate market is still competitive.

San Antonio

San Antonio has also seen a slight decrease in median home prices, with a 1.6% decline compared to the previous year [6]. The median price in San Antonio stands at $319,900, making it a relatively more affordable option compared to other major cities in Texas.

Dallas-Fort Worth

In Dallas-Fort Worth, the median home price decreased by 1.2% year-over-year, reaching $400,000 [ 6 ]. Despite the decline, the real estate market in this region remains robust, driven by strong economic growth and a diverse range of housing options.

Austin

Austin, the capital of Texas, experienced a more significant decline in median home prices, with a 7.9% decrease compared to the previous year[6]. However, even with the decline, Austin’s median home price remains relatively high at $456,000, reflecting the city’s popularity and strong demand.

Market Comparison: Texas vs. National Housing Market

To understand the Texas real estate market in a broader context, it is essential to compare it to the national housing market. While the national median home price in Q3 2023 was $406,900, Texas had a slightly lower median price of $340,000[6]. This indicates that Texas offers relatively more affordable housing options compared to the national average.

Expert Predictions for the Texas Housing Market

To gain insights into the future of the Texas housing market, it is valuable to consider expert predictions and forecasts. While it is challenging to make accurate long-term predictions, experts offer valuable insights based on current trends and market conditions.

New Listings and Months of Inventory

New listings fell by 1.45 percent to 42,100 in October, with San Antonio contributing significantly to this decline. The months of inventory (MOI) grew to 3.8 months across all four major metros. The months of inventory indicate the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current sales pace. A higher MOI suggests a more balanced market, while a lower MOI indicates a seller’s market.

Median Home Price Fluctuations

In October, the median home price in Texas experienced a 1.9 percent month-over-month (MOM) decrease, equating to over $6,000 less compared to the previous month. Despite this decline, half of the homes are priced between $200,000-$300,000 or $300,000-$400,000, making up 26 percent and 24 percent of total home sales, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index, which measures the appreciation of homes, moderated at a 0.1 percent MOM loss but showed a 1.5 percent year-over-year (YOY) increase. Austin experienced the lowest annual appreciation with a 5.7 percent YOY decrease, while Houston exhibited the highest annual appreciation at 2.5 percent.

Single-Family Permit Levels and Construction

Texas’ single-family construction permits rebounded by 1.1 percent month over month (MOM) to 12,619 issuances. While Houston experienced a 4.6 percent decrease, San Antonio and Dallas saw double-digit monthly percentage gains at 31 and 24 percent, respectively. Austin rebounded with an 8.7 percent increase to 1,643 units.

This rebound in single-family permit levels indicates the potential for increased construction activity in the coming months. It suggests that builders and developers are optimistic about the market’s future prospects.

Texas Real Estate Market Statistics

To gain a broader perspective on the Texas housing market, let’s examine some key statistics from Zillow as of November 30, 2023:

  • Average home value in Texas: $296,127, reflecting a marginal decline of 1.4% over the past year.
  • For Sale Inventory: 108,777 properties are available for sale, offering diverse options for potential buyers.
  • New Listings: 26,168 new listings have entered the market, contributing to its vibrancy and constant evolution.
  • Median Sale to List Ratio: The median sale to list ratio, an indicator of market competitiveness, is 0.987.
  • Median Sale Price: The median sale price for homes in Texas is $325,000, while the median list price is $361,333.
  • Percent of Sales: 20.1% of sales are recorded above the list price, while 58.8% are below the list price.

Source: FHFA

These statistics provide valuable insights into the current state of the Texas housing market, indicating a dynamic and evolving landscape.

Top Areas in Texas with Expected Price Rise in 2024

Looking ahead to 2024, certain regions in Texas are projected to experience notable growth in home prices. Based on Zillow’s forecasts, the following areas show promising signs:

  1. McAllen, TX: Anticipated growth of 2.2% in home prices by November 30, 2024.
  2. Jacksonville, TX: Expected rebound with a 2.1% increase in home prices by the end of 2024.
  3. Stephenville, TX: Moderate rise of 1.3% in home prices, showcasing a steady upward trajectory.
  4. Palestine, TX: Projected increase of 1.2%, indicating resilience and growth in the real estate market.
  5. Mount Pleasant, TX: Stability with no change in home prices initially, followed by a modest growth of 0.7% by November 30, 2024.

These regions present potential opportunities for buyers and investors, indicating positive market trends.

Top Areas in Texas with Expected Price Reductions in 2024

While certain areas in Texas are expected to experience growth, it is equally important to consider regions where home prices are projected to undergo substantial reductions in 2024. Based on Zillow’s forecasts, the following areas indicate potential challenges for sellers and opportunities for buyers:

  1. Zapata, TX: Significant decline expected, with an anticipated drop of 9.5% by November 30, 2024.
  2. Pecos, TX: Consistent decline projected, with an expected drop of 9.1% by November 30, 2024.
  3. Alice, TX: Decrease in home prices expected, with an anticipated drop of 8.9% by November 30, 2024.
  4. Sweetwater, TX: A decline in home prices foreseen, with an expected drop of 8.2% by November 30, 2024.
  5. Raymondville, TX: Significant drop in home prices expected, with an anticipated decrease of 7.8% by November 30, 2024.

These areas may offer favorable conditions for buyers looking for potential bargains in the market.

Texas Real Estate Forecast for the Next Five Years

While long-term predictions are subject to various external factors, economists generally expect home prices in Texas to experience slower growth in the next five years. Price appreciation is projected to be in the range of 2-4% annually, indicating a steady and sustainable market. As interest rates potentially decrease, inventory levels are expected to increase slightly, providing more opportunities for buyers.

Conclusion

The Texas real estate market remains robust and resilient, driven by population growth, strong demand, and a favorable business environment. While the market has experienced some fluctuations in home prices and inventory levels, experts predict stability and moderate growth in the coming years. As the state continues to attract homebuyers and investors, the Texas housing market is poised for continued success and development.

Remember, the best way to navigate the Texas real estate market is to work with a trusted and experienced real estate agent who can provide personalized advice and guidance throughout the homebuying or selling process. With their expertise and knowledge of the local market, they can help you make informed decisions and achieve your real estate goals in the Lone Star State.


Sources:

https://www.texasrealestate.com/market-research/quarterly-housing-report/

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/special-report/2024-Texas-Real-Estate-Forecast-2407

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight
https://www.redfin.com/state/Texas/housing-market

https://www.zillow.com/tx/home-values/

https://www.redfin.com/state/Texas/housing-market

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/tx/real-estate

https://www.niche.com/places-to-live/search/best-places-to-buy-a-house/s/texas/

https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/Four-Quarter-Heat-Map.aspx

https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/reportsplans/Pages/Fannie-Mae-Freddie-Mac-Reports.aspx

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/outlook-for-the-texas-economy



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Market Summary

Updates from Jackson Hole

The much-awaited Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair, Jerome Powell concluded this week. Fed chair alluded to keeping rates high for longer and left the door open for raising rates based on future inflation data. Powells speech was no surprise. The market largely anticipated the rates to be kept steady. Fed watchers are assigning a probability of 45% that the rates will increase by another 25-basis points by the end of the year.

  • Powell reiterated that “Core goods inflation has fallen sharply, particularly for durable goods, as both tighter monetary policy and the slow unwinding of supply and demand dislocations are bringing it down”.
  • He also reiterated that the lagging effect of monetary policy should show through more fully over time.
  • Powell also confirmed that “Restrictive monetary policy has tightened financial conditions, supporting the expectation of below-trend growth.”
  • Chair Powell also reiterated that 2% is the target rate of inflation and the Fed is determined to bring the inflation rate down to 2%.
  • The Fed chair concluded by saying that we will keep at it until the job is done.

Mortgage Rates

30 Year Mortgage rate stood at 7.23 % and 15-year Mortgage rate stood at 6.55 %, highest in 22 years. According to Mortgage Bankers association Applications for purchase mortgages dropped to their lowest levels since 1995.


Market Stats

Collin County


Tarrant County Market Stats


Tip of the week – Seller Impersonation

The sale of real estate is one of the top transactions targeted by scammers. The latest scam affecting the public involves criminals impersonating a seller wanting to list a lot or vacant land.

  • Stay informed on the latest scams to know what to watch for
  • It’s always a good idea to use trusted title companies and attorneys for closing documents and funds.

Capital Market Updates


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Market Summary

  • Federal Reserve introduces instant payment, FedNow services this week. The FedNow service went live on July 20, 2023
  • CPI rises 0.2 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis. CPI Stood at 3% from a year ago March 2021.
  • China’s hypergrowth slows down. Real estate and government fueled boom is coming to an end.
  • Fed keeps squeezing the peddle on rate hike. Federal Reserve raises Rate to 0.25%.
    • The Fed fund rate stands at 5.25% – 5.5% highest in 22 years. The quarter point hike was unanimous.
    • Consumer growing slowly.
    • Fed will be data dependent and have left room open for further rate hikes. “We can afford to be a little patient, as well as resolute, as we let this unfold,” Fed chair Powell said.
    • The next meeting is in September. We have 2 more months of CPI that Fed will take into consideration.
    • Policy will still be held at Restrictive levels.
    • Fed won’t be cutting rates this year – Powell.

Personal Saving Rate of American is shrinking since covid high

As noticed from the graph from St Louis Fed. The saving rate stood at 4.6 in May 2023 a significant drop of 33.8 in Apr 2020. The decline is below the average. Does this mean Americans are running out of money to spend ?

Mortgage Rate Update

Long term rates continue to fall 15 years stood at 6.06% and 30 years stood at 6.78%

Market Stats

The Median Price per square foot in Collin County stood at $216.86. Active Listings were up 0.2% YoY

Lock-In Effect is Real in Residential Real estate.

According to Realtor.com, there were 26% fewer U.S. homes listed for sale in June 2023 than in June 2022, and 28.9% fewer than in June 2019. An interesting article on fortune.com summed this well “just consider the fact that 91% of mortgage borrowers have an interest rate below 5%, including 70.7% with an interest rate below 4%. For those homeowners, it simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell and purchase a property right now at a 6% or 7% mortgage rate.”

A Recent tweet by @NewsLambert from Fortune magazine draws attention to the fact of lock in effect

Texas Ranked in Top 10 on CNBC Annual Ranking of Top States for Business 2023

CNBC annual ranking of Top states is out and the top spot for business this year went to North Carolina followed by Virginia and Tennesse.

Georgia stood at #4, Minnesota at #5 followed by Texas. Texas was ranked # 2 in workforce


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Market Summary

  • House and Senate passes Debt ceiling bill averting a US Default before the deadline of 06/05/2023
  • Non-Farm Payroll Rose to 339,000 for the month of May 2023.
  • Unemployment Rate rose to 3.7% from 3.4 % in April
  • The market is already pricing in a rate pause. The strong job report is an indication that the fed may have to do more to curb persistent inflation. Although inflation is coming down, but it seems to be more sticky than what Jerome Powell would have thought.

Capital Market Update

NVDIA temporarily became the 1st trillion-dollar company in terms of market cap from the chip sector fueled by AI Boom. Is this a bubble or is it really different this time only time will tell.  NVDIA posted non-GAAP EPS of $1.09, beating street estimates by $0.17. Trading at 40x – 50x multiple it’s still considered as cheap by many analysts. As Buffett said, “Price is what you pay value is what you get”. The euphoria around NVDIA AI BOOM is far from fading. 

An interesting chart by @charliebilello. Great strategist if you are not following, please do follow. NVDIA trading at 38x Sales and 200x earnings.

Home Prices Fall according to Case-Shiller Index 

According to the case-shiller index home prices have retreated in the past few months after growing to record high between 2012 – 2022. Prices fell 1.2 percent from the previous year. They have fallen 7.5 percent since last June, when they peaked, but increased from February to March.

Texas had the most vibrant real estate market between 2020- 2022 followed by Phoenix and Jacksonville

According to Storagecafe, Houston followed by San Antonio is the most coveted Real Estate development market. The list also includes Austin, Dallas & Fort Worth. The city of Houston registered the largest number of single-family homes being permitted from 2013 to 2022, around 55,600 units, with 2021 and 2022 the best years of the decade for residential construction.

The other cites outside of Texas that had a vibrant real estate market in the last part of decade were Phoenix at # 6 followed by Jacksonville Florida at #7 , Las vegas, NV at # 8

Home Sellers have started reducing their prices as the housing
market cools off.
Home Sellers have started reducing their prices as the housing
market cools off.

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Is Commercial Real Estate the Next Shoe to Drop

The average vacancy rate in office space was up 18.6% in Q1 2023. Although the work-from-home trend is improving as companies are mandating workers to return to office, but most spaces are still empty. As the bank earnings are unravelling, bank balance sheet seems to show more and more exposure to commercial real estate.

The sectors that will be most impacted by commercial real estate bust will be banking, insurance companies that have invested or underwritten commercial mortgage loan. SIVB, Signature bank debacle has increased the nervousness among the market participants. A recent Bloomberg report shed light on Fed acknowledging that the lack of oversight staff at Fed NY branch led to the slow response on signature bank. It’s too late on Fed part to take responsibility Although the depositors were made whole Shareholders and bond holders lost big on these banks. This definitely has rattled the capital markets and the markets have not gained their footing so far from this debacle. Another bank that seems to be in the limelight post earning is First Republic Bank. Is First Republic bank next to fold? only time will tell.

How is this all-related let’s try to understand that in these paragraphs. The failure of these banks has exposed the crack in balance sheet of small banks which are carrying longer Yield to Maturity (YTM) bonds. It all started with the era of free money where smaller banks were exempt from stress test and liquidity caps and as they got huge deposit, during the COVID era due to government transfers they ended up investing those at the longer end of the curve less did they know at that point that the free money was fueling inflation and the Fed will raise rate quickly and aggressively.

With Fed raising rates depositors were getting 4-5% on CD’s and treasury bills. As the depositor rushed to withdraw their money in search of better yields these failed banks in an effort to ramp up liquidity were forced to sell many of their longer end YTM bonds at losses.

Commercial Real estate is also struggling with the raising rates. Are these bank failures pointing to something systematic in the system. A recent article in Fortune highlights how commercial real estate lending standards is tightening and the Fed raising rate has not helped the space and many Commercial Real Estate (CRE) operators will struggle to repay their debt or keep up their mortgage payment if the Fed keep the rates up longer. Inflation seems to be deeply ingrained and persistent as such the Fed has no choice but to keep the rates longer.

Let’s look at vacancies, Rising vacancies compounded with increasing rates have left quite a few office REITS scrambling in search of liquidity to service debt payment. The distress in the market will be exposed further once these loans mature.

Morgan Stanley’s wealth management chief investment officer, Lisa Shalett, wrote in a recent report, “More than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months . The note can be download here.

A Recent section on Bisnow discussed the need for US Government intervention in Commercial Real. The article went on to say “Without some sort of intervention or assistance from federal regulators or a bailout from elected officials, industry advocates say the office sector could collapse — and drag regional banks down with it, causing the sort of broad financial catastrophe that nearly occurred with Silicon Valley Bank.

We don’t know yet what the impact of raising rates and lower liquidity will be on CRE market except headlines like “Blackstone REIT limits investor redemptions again in March”.

All signs seem to be pointing to cracks emerging in the CRE space and headlines seems to be confirming to the same. Will these cracks take the dam down is something yet to be seen. As the market awaits Fed pivot it is yet to be seen if the pivot will be too late for Commercial Real Estate.

The commercial space property value stood at $3.2 Trillion

US has the highest vacancy rate running somewhere at approximately 18%

Property Tax Relief with the passage of House Bill 2

The Texas house passed tax relief Bill. The Bill 2 establishes a 5% annual
appraisal Cap on all the property types.

83(2) HB 2 – Enrolled version – Bill Text (texas.gov)

  1. The bill limits the ability of local governments to increase property tax revenue without obtaining voter approval.
  2. The bill requires certain information to be included in the notices of proposed tax rate increases sent to property owners.
  3. It mandates that the appraisal district website must include a link to a searchable database of all tax rates for each taxing unit.
  4. The bill increases transparency in the property tax process by requiring local governments to provide more detailed information about tax rates and revenue in their budget documents.
  5. It also requires the Comptroller of Public Accounts to develop a property tax administration system to provide more transparency and accountability.
  6. The bill establishes a Property Tax Administration Advisory Board to advise and assist the comptroller with the development of the new system.
  7. Finally, the bill provides for penalties for noncompliance and authorizes the attorney general to investigate and enforce the provisions of the bill.

Market Stats – Greater Fort Worth

  • Median Sale Price Stood at 333,500 down 0.8% YoY
  • Closed Sales are down -12.4% YOY
  • Months of inventory stood at 2.7 up 1.6% YoY

Market Stats – Collin County

Contributor: Ishan Pandey follow me on Ishan Pandey @linkedin


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